By: Sheri Blaho
I attended a great economic overview seminar yesterday morning by Institute for Trend Research (ITR). Dr. Jeffry Dietrich gave us their forecast based on 60 years of economic research. This firm had accurately predicted the economic declines of 2008.
His forecast through 2017 looks rosy. Regardless of what the “talking heads” have to say, based on all the leading indicators ITR is predicting continued growth overall in the economy. The US is more stable than any other economy in the world.
Based on their model recessions occur every 8, 9, or 10 years with the last recessions in 82, 90/91 and 08/09. So he advises that we stop looking over our shoulders and think in terms of expansion. Savings are up in the US, both individuals and businesses. Industrial production, oil and gas, and retail are reporting record highs, but the press is not reporting this.
ITR defines the movement in the economy in four different phases:
B: accelerating growth
C: slower growth
Clearly identifying which phase of the economy your firm is in will allow you to make the correct business decisions. So being preparing as you move into the “D” phase of recession could give your firm an advantage. For example, this would be a good time to grow your business through acquisition of distress firms if you have good cash reserves. It is all about knowing in advance and making correct decisions.
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